Climate Continued from Page 11
Zach Bagley, managing director of the California Tomato Research Institute, asked if the study suggested topics where it would bewise to focus research efforts. The prospect of losing a significant amount of tomato ground could inform future breeding efforts, researchers said, although the projections regarding future productive areas vary quite a bit. “One breeding strategy for both toma- toes andcarrotswouldbe shorter growing seasons,”Marklein said. A shorter-season tomato could pre- sumably be grown either before or after thewarmest temperatures forecast for the heart of the Central Valley by 2050. Another area for researchwould be the extent towhich irrigationcouldbeused to reducecanopy temperatures,whichwould alsoshortentheperiod inthemiddleof the summerwhen theCentral Valley is toohot for tomatoes. “Water efficiency is another one of the areas to be looked at,”Marklein advised. Temperature is only one key factor affecting where and when crops can be grown, sheadded, asproductionmay also be influenced by day length, availability of pollinators, seasonal water availability and management practices such as the use of transplants. ( Bo b J o hn s o n i s a r e p o r t e r i n Sacramento. He may be contacted at bjohn11135@gmail.com.)
tional growing season. “There wi l l be some areas of the Central Valley that will be too warm for tomatoes, especially in July,” Marklein said. “There might need to be a shift in the growing area.” Warmer summers would still leave ideal tomato temperatures for periods during the spring and summer, she said, but the hot middle of the summer could leave the Central Valley without a grow- ing season long enough to produce a good crop. Marklein said the lettuce growing area figures to decline by at most 5%, if at all, as expansion of areas warm enough for winter productionshouldoffset the loss of parts of theSalinasValley that become too warm for summer production. Broccoli figures to fare well, too, she said, as there will be only slight shifts in theamount of ground that provides a four- monthgrowing seasonwith temperatures between 39 and 95 degrees. The growing season for cantaloupes might extend further in the spring and fall as temperatures rise, Marklein said. Carrotscould losesomeground, atmost around7%, as research indicatedthat tem- peratures in the Central Valley could be- come too hot for a stretch in themiddle of the summer.
Warmer temperatures by 2050 might expand the growing season for broccoli in California, ac- cording to University of California researchers who studied broccoli and four other vegetables.
But depending on whether research- ers followed a “cooler and wetter” or “hotter and drier” climate model—and on the success of global efforts to reduce greenhousegases—midsummer hot tem- peratures could reduce California toma- to acreage by anywhere from13% to 67%, Marklein said. The researchers based their tempera- ture forecasts on highly detailed data of
climatechange that has alreadyhappened in local California growing areas during a 15-year period. “It may become too hot to grow warm-season tomatoes where they have been historically farmed in the summer, and may require moving them to milder climates warmenough for growing toma- toes under the new climate scenarios,” Marklein said.
12 Ag Alert May 19, 2021
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