C A L I F O R N I A
Vegetables A SPECIAL GROWERS’ REPORT OF AG ALERT ®
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Warmer summertime temperatures forecast for California by 2050 could render some current tomato-growing regions too hot for the crop, according to University of California researchers who com- pared climate models with the growing-season temperature needs of key vegetable crops. UC says it will use the analysis to focus future research to help farmers adapt to the anticipated changes.
Analysts predict climate impact on vegetable crops ByBob Johnson
She discussed the team’s findings during awebinar sponsored by SeedCentral, a pub- lic-privatepartnershipthatbrings togetherUCDavis researchersandstudentswithprivate companies in the region, to help bring science tomarket faster. “Climate affects temperature, precipitation and greenhouse gases, and these interact to determine where different crops can be grown,”Marklein said. “This is critical for the food security of the country.” The researchers lookedat a rangeof climateprojections for different areas of California during thecourseof theyear in2050. They thencomparedtheprojectionswiththegrowing needsof fivevegetables forwhichCalifornia iscrucial tonational supply: tomatoes, lettuce, broccoli, carrots and cantaloupe. The shift of suitablegrowingareas couldhavenational implications, becauseCalifornia farmersproduce94%ofU.S.-growncarrots, 90%of thebroccoli, 73%of the tomatoes, about two-thirds of the cantaloupes andmore than half of the lettuce. Marklein said four of the crops would require shifts in planting dates or growing areas, but thereshouldbe relatively littlechange inthe total productivegroundduring thecourse of the year. But tomatoes might face a rocky future, she said, because a warmer climate could leave much of the Central Valley too hot for the crop during the heart of the tradi-
Warmer temperatures couldmake somekeygrowingareas of theCentral Valley toohot for tomatoes in the summer by themiddleof the century, leaving ideal temperatures only during periods of the spring and fall that wouldbe too short to produce a crop, according to analysis by a teamof University of California researchers. Among other crops, lettuce could become subject to unacceptable levels of tip burn if temperaturesbecomeevena fewdegreeswarmer duringmuchof the traditional growing season in the San Joaquin Valley, desert region and even in areas of the Salinas Valley during thesummer—but researchsuggestswarmer temperatureswould increasesuitable ground near the coast during thewintermonths. In addition, the researchers said broccoli might benefit if warmer winters made for a longer growing season that extends through thewinter in some areas of the state. “Climate can affect where crops are grown, when they are grown, how they are grown andwhich varieties are grown,” saidAlisonMarklein, aUCRiverside project scientist. Marklein led the research team that compared climate models for different areas of the state up to the middle of the century with the growing-season temperature needs of key vegetables. The project aimed to anticipate shifts in where and when these crops could be grown, and to help focus research efforts to best aid vegetable farmers in adapting to warmer times.
See CLIMATE, Page 12
May 19, 2021 Ag Alert 11
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