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the season with a full soil profile that way to try tomaximizegrowth,”Needhamsaid. “With the lack of water lately, I think that the perception of the size of the crop is di- minisheda littlebit, I think, fromwherewe weremaybe twomonths ago.” Needham added a caveat : “That’s all speculationat thispoint, because thebuds haven’t even started to push.” Bitter said he doesn’t see a lot of reason to believe 2022will be above average, not- ing that the original 2021 forecast was for 4million to 4.1million tons. “The realitywas, therewas a lot of stunt- edshoot growthfromthedrywinter,”Bitter said. “Then, of course, wehad the verydry spring and hot summer. Those climactic factors endedup retarding the cropdevel- opment. What looked good in the begin- ning ended up being light.” A lingering issue for Bitter is whether growers will be able to cover their costs. “Inreality,grapepricesarenot increasing fast enoughtokeepupwiththe increases in the cost of production,” Bitter said. “They didn’t jump over a series of years, and it’s notkeepingupwiththecostofproduction.” A wide variety of factors are contrib- uting to growers’ expenses, including California’s higher minimum wage and new40-hourworkweek, aswell as inflation drivingup thepricesof fertilizer, pesticides and fuel, Bitter said. “Anything that we’re putting in or around or on our vineyard is rising in cost,” he noted. “We’ve pulled away from the situation we were in 2019, but there’s also lots of price sensitivity,” Bitter said. “The com- petition is fierce out there in the bigworld and on the shelf. Buyers are very cost conscious when it comes to what they’re paying for grapes. I continue to see a sit- uation where their cost consciousness is coming up against the reality of rising costs for growers and their need to cover those costs with increased grape prices.” (Kevin Hecteman i s an ass i stant editor of Ag Alert. He may be contacted at khecteman@cfbf.com.)
cause ’20 was the year that we had a lot of smokeexposureanda lot of problemswith grapes either being accepted or being ac- ceptedat full price,”Bitter said. “Whenthat happens, thatbringsdowntheaverage, be- cause you’ve got grapes being discounted in price. You’ve got relatively higher-price grapes in the coast that are not being har- vested. Those tons don’t enter into the report, and those tons are generally tons that areabove theaveragestatewideprice.” Needham said smoke was “almost a
nonfactor in2021comparedto2020,where itwas ahuge factor,”noting that heknewof only one smoke-related rejection in 2021, affecting an El Dorado County vineyard close to theCaldorFire. “I haveheardof no negative reports back onwine quality.” The 2022 crop is facing a lot of un- knowns,mainlydrought andthespecterof fire.Needhamsaid themoodhas changed since the rains of October andDecember. “All the growers and the wineries, they would like to get somemore rain and start
racked up the second-highest average in the state, at $2,671.57 per ton. By way of comparison, the statewide average price was $848.42 per ton, up 24.8% from2020. Bitter saidthere’smore to theprice jump thanmeets theeye. The2020prices reflect adjustments resulting from widespread wildfire-induced smoke damage. “The rest of thestory is that averagepric- es dipped significantly from ’19 to ’20, be-
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