The water level of Lake Oroville, shown on July 3, rose more than 240 feet as a result of 2023 storms. Officials say a continuing El Niño pattern could mean more wet weather over the next year.
El Niño lifts hopes for more water, stirs fears of flooding
By Peter Hecht California reservoirs are brimming at historic levels after a water year described as akin to a “miracle.” Lake Shasta, the largest reservoir in the federal Central Valley Project that provides water to over 3 million acres of farmland, stood last week at 131% of its historic av- erage water level. Lake Oroville, the cor- nerstone of the State Water Project that supplies water to 27 million people, stood at 136% of its historic average after its water level rose by more than 240 feet. The dramatic increases in surface-water supplies are the result of an El Niño weath- er pattern this year that brought drenching atmospheric river storms. It followed a La Niña pattern that delivered three years of searing drought, resulting in the fallowing of as much as 1.3 million acres of farmland. With farmers and ranchers suddenly blessed with ample water supplies, state and federal officials said last week they expect to release water from reservoirs to create more water-storage space. That is because of fears of potential severe flood- ing from a predicted second consecutive El Niño year. “The No. 1 operational priority is flood control,” said Levi Johnson, act- ing operations manager for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s Central Valley Operations Office. However, officials said an El Niño pat- tern doesn’t necessarily mean flooding or even assure a year of bountiful rain and water storage opportunities. “It may not be wet, but it may not be as severely dry as some of the years we’ve seen recently,” said Michael Anderson, state climatologist for the California Department of Water Resources. Anderson’s cautious observation came as state and federal officials previewed the water year that runs from Oct. 1 to Sept. 30 and discussed the 2022-23 water year that just ended.
The phenomenal year brought 33.56 inches of rain, 141% of the statewide aver- age, with rain from October to March 153% of average. The state’s snowpack on April 1 was 237% of normal, only the fourth time it topped 200% of normal since 1950. “This was, I think, as close to a miracle year as you can get after following just the intensity of drought conditions,” DWR Director Karla Nemeth said. She added, “We’ve always had intense variability in California. But the sudden- ness of the shift from very extreme dry to very extreme wet is something that we think needs additional research to understand how changes in the climate may have played a factor or not in that extreme shift.” Ernest Conant, regional director for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, said federal officials are “pleased to go into this new water year in a much better place than we’ve been in the last few years.” Conant said, “Both our reservoirs as well as groundwater basins were able to be re- plenished nicely with excess flows from the winter storms.” Ted Craddock, deputy director of the State Water Project, said the SWP was able to provide 100% water allocations this year to 29 water agencies. He noted, “This is the first time that’s happened since 2006, and we were also able to provide an additional 400,000 acre-feet of water on top of that 100% allocation, which is really good news for water supply in the state.” Paul Gosselin, the state’s deputy director for sustainable groundwater management, said storms this year helped replenish the state’s depleted aquifers by more than 1.2 million acre-feet through groundwater re- charge efforts. But the state’s improved water picture came at the cost of massive agricultural losses from flooding this year. See WATER, Page 11
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