Ag Alert. June 8, 2022

Report: Field crop plantings mixed in challenging times

largely of exports, is projected at 17 mil- lion bales. That is down 300,000 bales from the estimated 2021-22 use. Exports are projected to be down 250,000 bales, to 14.5 million bales in 2022-23. Low cotton stocks and a below-average crop are expected to support relatively high prices in 2022-23. USDA projects an average price of 90 cents per pound for upland cotton. That is just 2 cents below the estimated price for 2021-22 of 92 cents, which would be a record and would be 17 cents above the projection this time last year.

Farmer planting decisions will not be updated by USDA until the June 30 acre- age report, which will provide a better idea of supply expectations for the new- est marketing year. High input costs could shift planted acreage, and continued high prices could result in revised supply expectations throughout the 2022-23 marketing year. (This report was adapted from the American Farm Bureau Federation’s May 13 Market Intel Report, which may be found at fb.org/market-intel/first-look-at-the-2022- 23-marketing-year-amid-global-turmoil.)

Amid concerns about global grain and oilseed supplies due to the Russian war on Ukraine, the U.S. Department of Agriculture World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report provides a first look at supply and demand expecta- tions for the newest marketing year. The May WASDE report also gives pro- jections for corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton for the upcoming marketing year. Here are some highlights, published by the American Farm Bureau Federation in its Market Intel report: • USDA estimates for corn planted for the 2022-23 marketing year, at 89.5 mil- lion acres, was down 4.2% from the 93.4 acres planted in 2021-22. Farmers are expected to harvest 81.7 million acres of corn in 2022, at a yield rate of 177 bushels per acre. That projects to 14.5 billion bushels, down from 2021’s near record 15.1 billion bushels. But it would be 4% above the five-year average of 14.5 billion bushels. USDA projected the 2022-23 corn price at $6.75 per bushel, up 85 cents from this year’s estimated total. This would be the highest since $6.89 in 2012-13. USDA’s estimate for the corn price in 2021-22 increased by a dime from April to May, to $5.90. • Wheat planted acres for the U.S. in 2022-2023 are estimated at 47.4 million acres. That’s an increase of 1.5% from 2021-22’s 46.7 million acres. Yield is estimated at 47 bushels per acre, which would generate wheat pro- duction of 1.729 billion bushels, a 5% increase from a poor 2021-2022 wheat crop. But that would still be about 8.5% below the five-year average of 1.89 bil- lion bushels. Estimated wheat demand in 2021-22 is down 8.5% from 2020-21, and 2022-23 demand is expected to decline another 2.4%, to 1.885 billion bushels, largely as the result of reduced exports, according to the Market Intel analysis. Based on USDA data, feed use of wheat for 2021-22 is expected to decline by 20 million bushels in 2022-23 to 100 million bushels, while exports are antic- ipated to fall 30 million bushels to 775 bushels in 2022-23. USDA estimates the average farm price of wheat for 2021-22 at $7.70 per bushel. That is an18% increase from its projec- tion last year, when the crop price was projected at $6.50 per bushel. In the newest marketing year, USDA estimates the 2022-23 average price of wheat at $10.75 per bushel, which would be the highest annual U.S. wheat price in history, $2.73 above the record of $8.02 in 2008. • Cotton planting expectations for the 2022-23 marketing year are 12.23 mil- lion acres. That is 9% above this year’s estimate, but farmers are projected to harvest only 9.14 million acres, based on historical rates of abandonment and poor soil moisture in the Southwest, according

to the Market Intel analysis. USDA anticipates a 6% yield bump to 867 pounds per acre for those acres, though, so the total harvest is expected to be 16.5 million 480-pound bales. That would be down 5.8% from the current year and about 13% below the five-year average. Overall cotton use, which consists

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June 8, 2022 Ag Alert 5