Report warns of future water losses for valley farms Average annual water supplies for the San Joaquin Valley could decline by 20% by 2040, with shortfalls largely driven by mandates of California’s 2014 Sustainable Groundwater Management Act, accord- ing to a new report from the Public Policy Institute of California. for irrigation. In a worst-case scenario, the report said nearly 900,000 acres of farmland would be fallowed and almost 50,000 jobs would be lost. Bou, Project Assistant Spencer Cole and Josué Medellín-Azuara, an asso- ciate professor of environmental engi- neering at the University of California, Merced, and an adjunct fellow at the Water Policy Center.
the coming changes,” the report said. “Incentivizing alternative uses for irrigat- ed lands could bring additional income to farmers and local communities while improving public health and environ- mental outcomes on fallowed lands.” The report was produced by research- ers affiliated with the PPIC Water Policy Center. The researchers included cen- ter Director and Vice President Ellen Hanak, Senior Fellow Alvar Escriva-
However, the policy brief said new wa- ter system investments, water trading pro- grams and improved productivity could curb the loss of productive farmland. “Improving trading rules, water in- frastructure and groundwater recharge could lower the cost of adapting to
Medellín-Azuara was the lead author of a UC Merced study in November that estimated that last year’s drought con- ditions cost California agriculture $1.2 billion in losses, up from $810 million in 2021. That report estimated that farmers in the San Joaquin and Sacramento val- leys fallowed 696,000 acres in 2022 and 524,000 acres in 2021. The 2020 to 2022 water years were the driest in recorded state history. In a challenge to policymakers, the recent PPIC Water Policy Center report noted that “inflexible water management is a costly way to cope with growing wa- ter scarcity.” Without new approaches, it said, the combined impacts of water supply cuts as a result of the SGMA law, climate change and increased environ- mental regulation could result in a $4.5 billion economic loss for the San Joaquin Valley agricultural region. Currently, the PPIC report said, valley agriculture employs about 340,000 people, with crop production—led by orchards and vines—creating more than $24 billion in revenues. Another $3.2 billion comes from dairy and beef production. Additonally, a $34 billion food and bev- erage processing industry relies on the valley’s crop production. “San Joaquin Valley agriculture is key for the region’s well-being, but this sector faces a future with less water for irrigation, an essential input,” the PPIC report said. The policy brief said investments in water infrastructure can capture and store more water in wet years to augment irrigation supplies in dry ones. It also said “transparent, well-run water markets will be essential to lessen the cost of growing water scarcity.” The report said water trading pro- grams, including markets allowing for groundwater allocations to be shared across local areas in the valley’s 15 groundwater basins, could reduce eco- nomic losses. Additionally, it said, the amount of lost farm acreage could be curbed as farming in the valley switches away from “some thirstier feed crops towards perennial nuts and fruits.” However, it said that approach “will raise costs for dairy, beef and their related processing industries, which will have to buy these inputs from elsewhere or find suitable substitutes.” With or without new water infrastruc- ture, the report said, it is inevitable that the San Joaquin Valley will have to man- age “large increases in fallowed land” as state groundwater sustainabilty rules take full force. “Even with an optimistic scenario for new supplies,” it said, “the valley is look- ing at close to half a million acres coming out of irrigated production.”
Released last week, the PPIC poli- cy brief said the San Joaquin Valley— America’s most bountiful farming re- gion—faces a future with less water
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10 Ag Alert February 15, 2023
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