Ag Alert. November 2, 2022

Cotton Continued from Page 1

stronger prices will hold into next year and even 2024. But with the economy slowing, demand for apparel and other products made with luxury fibers such as pima cotton could retreat, driving prices down, growers said. Tom Pires, general manager of West Island Cotton Growers in Kings County, said the cooperative cotton gin is just starting to gin this year’s cotton, so it’s hard to know what the total yields and quality will be. There’s also not much pima cotton being traded, but he noted earlier prices were double what they were last year. “We’re in a transition period right now trying to determine where the true value is,” he said. Meanwhile, competition remains fierce among seed companies, canner- ies and other processors looking to sign contracts with growers who have access to water to grow crops such as processing tomatoes and planting seed, including for cotton. Sheely said these companies are al- ready scouting for contracts for next year’s crop, “bidding up the ground.” They’re willing to pay more to get more acreage, he said. Even so, he said his cropping decisions going forward will be determined by water availability. With restrictions on groundwater pumping next year, he said he expects to be “more conservative on what I’m going to grow.” For example, he said he already decided

he won’t grow any organic pima cotton next year because of the high risk of a crop failure. He also has not committed to growing the amount of upland acres a seed company wants to contract because of water uncertainties. “What water we have, we’re going to put it to the permanent crops first,” Sheely said, referring to his pistachios and winegrapes. Rick Worth, who farms in Fresno and Kings counties, did not grow any cotton this year because he received no sur- face-water allocation. With almond pric- es dropping, he said he’s removing older orchards and “making choices on what to grow” depending on what he thinks is most profitable. “We’re not going to go back into a per- manent crop; we’re going to go back into row crop—tomatoes or possibly even cotton, especially if the price comes up,” he said. Tulare County farmer Geoff Toledo, who finished cotton harvest last week, typically grows an equal amount of pima and upland. Even though pima prices are higher, the longer-season crop is risky as harvest moves into the rainy season in November. Rain can delay harvest and wreck crop quality. Upland has a shorter season and typically yields better than pima, but prices have tumbled from where they were six months ago.

Even with the lower prices, Toledo said he will make out OK, as part of his upland acreage was contracted for seed, which pays him a price closer to what he would earn on pima. He also presold a third of his upland at higher prices. But he said he fears the weakening economy will affect consumer spending on cotton products such as clothes and sheets, further low- ering grower prices on the fiber. Merced County farmer Gino Pedretti III was about 70% done with cotton harvest last week. He described his yields as “a little off compared to last year,” blaming unfavor- able planting conditions in April. He plant- ed 60% of his acreage to pima and 40% aca- la, a higher-quality upland variety grown mostly in California and the Southwest. After “really good” yields last year and historically high prices, he said he was able to make “a decent profit” despite ris- ing production costs. With fuel, fertiliz- er, labor and other costs even higher this year, he said he hopes cotton prices will remain firm enough to cover those costs. What’s being grown and what’s being consumed still look “pretty promising” for stronger cotton prices, he said. “But everybody’s worried about what the world economy does,” Pedretti add- ed. “If it crashes and people stop buy- ing clothes, then that’s going to mess up the fundamentals.” (Ching Lee is an assistant editor of Ag Alert. She may be contacted at clee@cfbf.com.)

cotton remain depleted, with virtually no carryover from last year. California grows most of the nation’s pima cotton, with some production in Arizona, New Mexico and Texas. Considering the price, Isom said “we’d be wall to wall pima cot- ton if we had the water.” California farmers planted 131,801 acres of cotton this year, about 17% more than they grew last year, according to the California Department of Food and Agriculture. A total 113,858 acres went to pima, a 20% increase over 2021. Plantings of the more widely grown upland cotton climbed 11%, to 17,943 acres. After earning his “biggest returns on cotton” last year, Kings County grower Ted Sheely said he thinks the market out- look for pima remains good. He noted that Supima, a trade association that pro- motes American pima cotton, told grow- ers “this year’s crop will be all committed and sold by June or July of next year.” “That means there’s going to be demand for whatever we can grow,” Sheely said. The market outlook for upland cotton is more uncertain. Isom said even though prices have fallen from their historic high levels seen earlier this year, much of the U.S. Cotton Belt crop “is not looking good” due to hurricane, drought and oth- er weather-related production problems. With pima, Isom said people in the cotton business are more confident that

Agricultural Market Review

Quotations are the latest available for the week ending October 28, 2022 Year Ago Week Ago Latest Week Livestock Slaughter Steers – 5-Area Average Select & Choice, 1150–1460 lbs., $ per cwt. 123-124 147-148 150 Hogs – Average hog, 51-52% lean, Iowa-Minn. market, $ per cwt. 77.71 90.89 91.74 Slaughter Lambs – $ per cwt. 125–175 lbs. National weekly live sales 214.86-253.59 108-135 115.51 Field crops – basis prompt shipment Barley – U.S. No. 2, $ per cwt. Truck, Stockton-Modesto-Oakdale-Turlock No Quote No Quote No Quote Cotton – ¢ per lb., Middling 1 3/32” Fresno spot market 86.90 74.83 71.96 Corn – U.S. No. 2 yellow $ per bu. trucked 7.08 9.33 9.11 Alfalfa Hay – $ per ton, quality*, FOB Region 1, Northern Inter-mountain 260 (S) 360-370 (S) 370 (S) Region 2, Sacramento Valley No Quote No Quote No Quote Region 3, Northern San Joaquin Valley 260-280 (S) No Quote 450 (P/S) Region 4, Central San Joaquin Valley 330 (S) 460-478 (S) 475 (P/S) Region 5, Southern California 300 (P) 25 (S, per bale) 24.50 P, per bale) Region 6, Southeast Interior 191-280 (G/P) 450 (P) 420-435 (P) Oat Hay – $ per ton, quality*, FOB Northern California, dairy No Quote No Quote No Quote Oats – U.S. No. 2 white, $ per cwt. Statewide, trucked price No Quote No Quote No Quote

December 2-7, 2022 • Monterey

CALIFORNIA MARKETPLACE Enjoy live cooking demonstrations and booths highlighting the bounty and artisan goods of Farm Bureau members. Taste, talk and shop! WORKSHOPS

Delve into topics including water, Senate Bill 11, media training, and membership recruitment and retention. PRESENTATIONS

Dr. Amrith Gunasekara, CAFB director of science and research, introduces the exciting new work being done by the California Bountiful Foundation. SUNDAY ACTIVITIES Kick off the meeting with a FarmPAC ® cornhole tournament, farm tours, golfing and whale watching.

• Continuing Education (CE) sessions on pesticide licensing • Annual award banquet recognizing counties and individuals • Receptions and networking • Silent and live auctions • YF&R State Conference workshops, awards and networking PLUS

Dry Beans – Grower FOB prices Baby Limas, $ per cwt, (sacked) Large Limas, $ per cwt. (sacked) Blackeye, $ per cwt. (sacked)

No Quote No Quote No Quote

Rice – Milled No. 1 Head, FOB No. Calif. mills Medium grain, $ per cwt. Wheat – U.S. No. 2 or better, winter, $ per cwt. 13% protein, Los Angeles, trucked price

42-44

68-72

No Quote No Quote Provided by the California Farm Bureau as a service to Farm Bureau members. Information supplied by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Market News Branch. * ADF=Acid detergent fiber; (S) = Supreme/<27%ADF; (P) = Premium/27-29; (G) = Good/29-32; (F) = Fair/32-35. No Quote

For more information, visit cfbf.com/annual-meeting or call 916-561-5594

November 2, 2022 Ag Alert 9