Ag Alert September 16, 2026

Tomatoes Continued from Page 4

results in an average 1.8% reduction in yield compared with a day at the average temperature of 79 degrees. Heat also affects fruit quality, which can directly affect what growers earn. Payments can be reduced due to defects such as mold, green tomatoes, worms and other material. Growers also can receive bonuses or penal- ties based on sugar content. The study found that an additional day above 104 degrees reduces the price grow- ers earn by 0.2% because of reduced quali- ty. Quality is best at about 68 degrees. The effect of heat on revenue is great- er because yield and quality are affected. An additional day at 104 degrees reduces grower revenue by about 2% compared with a day at the average temperature. Although the effect on yield is greater, the researchers said failing to account for quality impacts “would cause us to under- estimate the effect of heat on revenue by up to 12%.” Looking ahead, they projected substan- tially more heat exposure in California’s processing tomato regions. Under a mid- dle-of-the-road emissions scenario, aver- age growing-season temperatures in those regions are projected to increase from about 73 F to 79 F by the end of the century. More extreme heat also is expected. The number of hours processing tomato plants are exposed to temperatures above 104 F is projected to increase from about 28 hours to roughly 250 hours. If growers continue to use current pro- duction practices without additional ad- aptation, the researchers estimated a 14% drop in yields, although the study indicat- ed the decline could range from 7% to 31%. Tomato quality also could decline be- tween 2% and 5%. These projections are not inevitable, the researchers empha- sized. Growers have several ways to adapt. One option is to shift planting dates ear- lier in the season to reduce the amount of time plants spend in peak summer heat. Adjusting the timing and amount of irri- gation also could provide some protection, although the study indicated irrigation alone has limits. Developing heat-tolerant varieties and related technologies could provide anoth- er avenue for reducing losses. The researchers also examined the pos- sibility of moving processing tomato pro- duction to cooler areas of California. Some regions could have heat exposure by the end of the century similar to what current tomato-growing areas experience today. But relocation would bring challenges, including competition with higher-value crops for agricultural land and potential- ly greater transportation costs. New pro- cessing facilities also could be needed if production moves far from existing plants. The study concluded that continued warming presents a significant challenge for the processing tomato industry. Whitnall and Beatty called for additional investment in research and development of heat-tolerant tomato varieties and relat- ed technologies while noting that growers can pursue other adaptation measures in the near term.

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16 Ag Alert September 16, 2026