Vineyard adaptation to heat an economic balancing act
the strongest returns. The study, “Economics of Winegrape Adaptation: Technology Adoption, Culti- var Selection, or Migration,” was conduct- ed by researchers from Cornell University and Pennsylvania State University. They used cabernet sauvignon production in Napa County as a case study and evaluated three approaches: adopting shade tech- nology, changing grape varieties or moving production to a cooler region. The findings underscore a basic eco- nomic reality of perennial crops: Deci- sions made today can affect vineyard
profitability for decades. “Extreme heat is no longer a once-in-a- decade problem for winegrape growers,” said Kristen Barnhisel, winemaker for San Jose-based J. Lohr Vineyards & Wines and president of the American Society for Enology and Viticulture, which publishes the journal. The researchers built a financial model around the costs and returns associated with each strategy. They considered the expense of establishing and operating a vineyard as well as the effects of heat on production and grape value. The first strategy was to stay with caber- net sauvignon in Napa and use technology to reduce heat damage. The study focused on shade cloth that can be installed over vines to protect clusters from direct sun- light and extreme temperatures. Heat can be particularly damaging during extreme events. When tempera- tures exceed 100 degrees Fahrenheit, grape clusters exposed to direct sun can reach substantially higher temperatures. Heat stress can damage berries, affect com- pounds important to wine quality and reduce yields. Shade technology can help mitigate those effects, but it is not free. Installation represents a significant investment, and materials eventually need to be replaced. The economic question for growers is whether the protection afforded by shade is worth the additional capital and oper- ating costs. The second strategy was cultivar selec- tion—replacing cabernet sauvignon with a variety better suited to hotter conditions. In the model, the researchers used carignan as an example of a more heat-tolerant cultivar. That approach involves a trade-off. A grower could gain resilience and poten- tially maintain production under hotter conditions, but changing varieties could affect the price received for grapes or wine. It also means moving away from an estab- lished market identity tied to a particular grape and place. The third strategy was migration— moving vineyard production to a cooler location. The study modeled a move from Napa County to Lake County. Relocation, however, involves major costs and risks. Establishing a vineyard in a new location requires land, vines, trellising, irrigation and other infrastruc- ture, while a grower gives up some of the economic value associated with an estab- lished vineyard and its regional identity. The economic model showed that adap- tation is not necessarily an all-or-nothing decision. With relatively modest changes in climate, continuing to grow cabernet sauvi- gnon in Napa without making major chang- es remained the most profitable option. This makes economic sense for a grower who already has productive vines, estab- lished markets and a premium reputation. As heat stress increased, however, the economics shifted. At moderate levels of additional heat, installing shade cloth became the more attractive strategy. The technology allows growers to retain estab- lished vines and their associated market identity while reducing the effects of ex- treme heat.
Winegrape growers facing a hotter and more volatile climate may have several ways to protect the value of their vineyards, but a new study suggests there is no single best adaptation strategy. The most profitable choice depends on how severe heat becomes, according to re- search published this year in the American
Journal of Enology and Viticulture. Under relatively mild warming, growers may be better off maintaining established vineyards and varieties. As heat stress in- creases, shade technology can become economically attractive. Under the most severe conditions modeled, switching to a more heat-tolerant grape variety produced
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See VINEYARD, Page 15 September 16, 2026 Ag Alert 11
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