Ag Alert Nov. 3, 2021

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduledtorelease informationthisweek that includes long-term supply, use and price projections to 2031 for major U.S. crops and livestock products. Presented in a table format, the infor- mation is sourced from short-term fore- casts from the Oct. 12World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report as the starting point. The agency will re- lease the complete “USDA Agricultural Projections to 2031” report in February The projections reflect a conditional, long-run scenario that is based on specific assumptions about macroeconomic con- ditions, policy, weather, and international developments,withnodomesticorexternal shocks to global agricultural markets. The Agricultural Act of 2018 is assumed to re- mainineffectthroughtheprojectionperiod. Theprice-projection tableswill bepost- ed inMicrosoft Excel to thewebsites of the Office of theChief Economist website and the Economic Research Service. USDA supply projections difficult amid pandemic and the document includes a discussion of the commodity supply and use projec- tions, and projections for farm income and global commodity trade. Last year, in its “Agricultural Projections to 2030” report, the USDA said the COVID-19 pandemicmakes such projec- tions difficult. “The COVID-19 pandemic introduces greater than normal uncertainty into the macroeconomic assumptions underlying the USDA agricultural projections,” that report said. “The economic impact of the pandemic is unprecedented in recent his- tory, and the path to controlling the pan- demic and ensuing economic recovery cannot be knownwith certainty.” USDA’s long-term agricultural projec- tions represent a departmental consensus ona10-year representativescenariofor the agricultural sector. Theyareacompositeof model results and judgment-based anal- yses, coveringAugust throughFebruary.

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Colusa, CA Dixon, CA Gridley, CA Robbins, CA Willows, CA Woodland, CA Yuba City, CA

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10 Ag Alert November 3, 2021

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